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Practical Schedule Risk Analysis, by David Hulett
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Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project's schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. Practical Schedule Risk Analysis contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level: * Why is the duration uncertain? * And how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution? These are then progressively elaborated: * How does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path's completion date? * How can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually? * How can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all? Culminating in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current commercial software. Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas, information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project schedule.
- Sales Rank: #281767 in Books
- Published on: 2009-07-28
- Original language: English
- Dimensions: 9.50" h x 6.75" w x .75" l, 1.50 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 240 pages
Review
This is an extremely important book, which presents a depth of understanding of estimating and scheduling rarely seen in industry. It explains the techniques used in a number of schedule analysis software packages, and encourages a more mature approach to understanding the information presented by a project schedule. It should be required reading for all project managers, schedulers, and risk practitioners; and also for programme managers, sponsors, and all staff involved in contracting for project delivery. John Greenwood, PMP on Arraspeople.co.uk "This is a well documented and extensively illustrated text that takes novice and expert alike on a journey of discovering on how to handle risk and uncertainty when they apply to project activity durations ... By having each math exercise direct to apply to examples of schedule management, we arrive at the added business value of increased certainty for project duration almost before we realize that it was those simulated 5,000 random iterations that got us there... Dealing with schedule risk requires serious attention. This serious volume addresses the subject in an intelligent and instructive manner.' - Cost Engineering, Journal of the AACE 'The book being organized into eleven chapters has a broad and in-depth coverage of the subject matter...The book seeks to encourage and promote the need for project schedulers and project managers to develop practical as well as thorough competencies...Another impressive perspective is the inclusion of a novel way to take account of risks in schedule risk analaysis models called the 'Risk Driver' method - a powerful way of mapping risks to activities...The book provides an interesting read.' - PM World Today
About the Author
David T. Hulett is internationally recognised as a leading expert in risk management, leader in risk management activities of the Project Management Institute (project manager of the Risk Management chapter of the PMBOK® Guide, 2000 and 3rd editions), deputy PM of the Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (ongoing) and frequent conference speaker. He has a consulting and training practice with clients in many industries around the world.
Most helpful customer reviews
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
Every serious scheduler should study this book
By John Schuyler
This is the best book I've read about practical project scheduling under uncertainty.
While I don't agree with everything, this book provides generally excellent guidance toward scheduling professionalism. Well treated are schedule logic, probabilistic branching, and risk drivers (and other correlation methods).
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
A Guide for Keeping Schedule Risk Under Control
By William Taylor
In the profession of project management, risk and uncertainty are more likely to be identified with cost estimates than with schedule analysis. David Hulett has added to his already considerable contribution to the field with this well documented and extensively illustrated text that takes novice and expert alike on a journey of discovering how to realistically handle risk and uncertainty when they apply to project activity durations as well.
The book begins and ends with pointing out some of the shortcomings of the tried and true scheduling techniques of the past: Chapter l is sub-titled, Looking Beyond the Critical Path Method, while Appendix l is titled, The Problem with PERT. In between is a robust procedures manual that walks us step-by-step through clear demonstrations and explanations of probability distributions, Monte Carlo simulations, risk criticality, schedule sensitivity, and qualitative and quantitative risk analysis. We are also introduced to a new Risk Driver approach that builds on the already existing project risk register, to focus more on the risk itself as opposed to the project activity affected by it.
In addition to also covering some advanced analytical topics, this book also has a "back to business basics" approach. The focus is always on answering the traditional questions of how likely are we to meet the target schedule, how much time must be added to get the desired degree of schedule certainty, and where in the schedule is the greatest risk.
Getting the right math right also appears to be one of the objectives of this book. Statistics and simulations are explained carefully and completely so as not to scare off the faint of heart. For example, by having each math exercise directly apply to examples of schedule management we arrive at the added business value of increased certainty for project duration almost before we realize it was those simulated 5,000 random iterations that got us there.
We are also cautioned about the dangers with respect to incorrect uses of lags and logic and the ineffective uses of milestones. If the schedule is not robust to begin with no amount of risk analysis is likely to make it right. And for those with larger projects - with multiple parallel and/or potential critical paths - the challenges of risk build up at merge points is explained and demonstrated, again by detailed example.
In one of the foundational areas for risk analysis the book provides practical guidelines for defining and then gathering ac curate and valid risk data. Challenges to this absolutely essential task are pointed out to include organizational maturity issues as well as those individual biases typically categorized as availability and anchoring. But improvement in this area is a necessary step for implementing the mechanics of the author's Risk Driver method. Among other things, this method assigns risks to all activities they affect, correlates activities whose durations are affected by common risks, and prioritizes the risks rather than activities and paths.
The Risk Driver use of correlation between activity durations - activities that systematically overrun their estimated durations together - entails some additional statistical analysis. However, the author provides yet another set of detailed examples that take the reader easily through the calculations, along with useful hints for expert estimates when there is no historical data or for letting software packages automatically adjust the coefficients.
Schedule uncertainty is a fact of life. Dealing with schedule risk requires serious attention. This serious volume addresses the subject in an intelligent and instructive manner. Part teaching text and part procedures manual, it provides useful and unique advanced analytical insights for focusing directly on the risks that drive activity durations.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
All what I expected
By Cliente de Amazon
An excellent book treating project simulation to establish its schedule risk. It's a classic and what I expected when made the purchase
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